After the Drop: What the 20% US Market Rebound Really Means

If you've been watching the markets lately, you may feel like you've just stepped off a rollercoaster. One day it’s panic. The next, euphoria. Stocks down 20%, then bouncing back 20% in just weeks. Yields shooting up unexpectedly. Gold hitting all-time highs. The dollar softening. It's enough to make even seasoned investors uneasy.

But at Hoxton Wealth, we’re not rattled, we’re recalibrating. Our approach is built for exactly this kind of environment: fast-moving, noisy, and filled with both risk and opportunity.

Chris Ball sat down once again with Omer Chowdhury, Head of Fixed Income & Multi-Asset at Additum and fund manager of our Moderate and Adventurous portfolios, to unpack what’s really happening behind the scenes, and how your portfolio is being actively managed to stay resilient.

Here’s what you need to know.

When we last spoke with Omer just eight weeks ago, the markets were teetering on the edge of what we called the “tariff tantrum.” Since then, we’ve seen one of the biggest snapback rallies in recent memory, US equities up nearly 20% over just nine weeks.

It may sound crazy. But it’s often how markets behave. Our response is to be tactical, not reactive.

When warning signs appeared in March, we quickly dialled down equity exposure, especially in US markets. But as the dust settled, we moved fast to reposition, still slightly underweight US, but leaning into European equities where we saw a compelling fiscal and valuation story.

This is the advantage of active portfolio management. Rather than jumping in and out of markets entirely, we rebalance. We fine-tune. We stay invested with purpose.

In times of turmoil, many investors are tempted to “wait it out” in cash. But history has shown this is rarely a winning strategy.

Some of the biggest single-day gains often follow the worst days, like the Nasdaq jumping 11% and the S&P 500 soaring 9% in a single session recently. Miss those days, and you risk missing a major part of the recovery.

Trying to perfectly time the bottom is nearly impossible, and unnecessary. That’s why we stay invested, adjusting allocations as needed but never pulling out completely. The real risk isn’t short-term market swings, it’s being on the sidelines when the recovery begins.

One of the big takeaways from the past few months is that relying on US equities alone isn’t enough anymore.

For the first time in years, we’re seeing real momentum outside the US:

• Europe is benefiting from major fiscal stimulus, including Germany’s €1 trillion infrastructure spend.
• Japan remains economically strong, despite political noise.
• Emerging markets like India and (potentially) China are showing signs of long-term opportunity, though we’re cautious on position sizing given the volatility.

At Hoxton, we’ve structured our portfolios to reflect a truly global view, because diversification isn’t just a buzzword. It’s protection.

If you thought bonds were the “safe and boring” part of your portfolio, think again.

Yields have moved sharply higher, much faster than anyone expected. This is due to a mix of persistent inflation, fiscal pressure, and global investors starting to question the US’s role as a safe haven.

We’re now seeing 4.5% yields on long-term US treasuries and 2%+ real yields (after inflation). That’s attractive, especially for long-term, income-focused investors. But the key is the pace of the move. A slow drift higher is fine. A spike is more problematic.

We’re watching both the level and speed of yield movements closely, and adjusting our bond positioning accordingly.

Gold is shining again...literally. Trading around all-time highs, it's proving to be more than just a crisis hedge.

This is because central banks (especially in Asia) are buying it. Because it’s a way to diversify away from dollar risk. And because real yields, while rising, are still supportive of gold.

We currently hold around 6% in gold across our portfolios. That includes a core position and some tactical allocation. We’re not gold bugs, but we do see its value in this environment.

A final but critical point: currency.

With a lot of our clients based in the UK and most of our investments in USD, we hedge currency risk to avoid major swings in your portfolio value caused by FX movements. That means less volatility, more predictability.

It’s one more layer of active management that protects your long-term returns, especially now that the dollar has weakened significantly in recent months.

In short: more bumps, more opportunity.

We expect sideways market movement within a wide range, not a massive breakout, but not a collapse either. Think of it as a “range-bound rally” where volatility remains, but fundamentals slowly catch up.

We’ll continue to:

• Stay globally diversified
• Be selective in sectors like AI, semiconductors, and infrastructure
• Adjust tactically, but stay invested strategically
• Watch fixed income and currency risk carefully
• Use gold and alternative assets to hedge where needed

At Hoxton Wealth, we don’t just ride the market. We navigate it.

That means protecting your capital during drawdowns. It means re-entering smartly when opportunities emerge. And it means ensuring your portfolio isn’t just surviving, but positioned to thrive.

If you’ve got questions about your portfolio, the markets, or what this all means for your financial goals, don’t sit with uncertainty. Reach out: client.services@hoxtonwealth.com

We’re here. We’re active. And we’re always working for your future.