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A Week That Had Everything: Iran, Energy Shocks, the Fed, the BoE and Nvidia
Hoxton Blog • A Week That Had Everything: Iran, Energy Shocks, the Fed, the BoE and Nvidia
It has been one of the most eventful weeks in recent memory.
Iranian strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure drove oil and gas prices sharply higher. At the same time, both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England held interest rates steady, with the latter adopting a more hawkish tone and signalling it stands ready to act if inflationary pressures intensify.
Amid all of this, Nvidia told investors that the revenue opportunity for its Blackwell and Rubin AI chips could exceed $1 trillion by 2027.
In most weeks, that would have dominated market attention. This week, it did not.
These are not separate developments, but parts of a single narrative, with Iran at the centre. Understanding how they connect provides a clearer view of current market conditions and what they may mean for your portfolio.
What Happened This Week
| This Week | What Happened | The Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Iran | Strikes on Gulf production and processing infrastructure | Brent crude surged above $100, briefly nearing $119; European gas prices jumped sharply |
| US Federal Reserve | Held rates at 3.5%–3.75% | Median outlook still points to one rate cut this year, but inflation risks have increased |
| Bank of England | Held rates at 3.75% and warned on inflation risks | Markets shifted from pricing cuts to considering the possibility of further hikes |
| Nvidia GTC Conference | Highlighted a potential $1 trillion AI-chip revenue opportunity through 2027 | Strong long-term fundamentals received a muted immediate market response |
| Exchange rates | Mixed movements across major currencies | The US dollar strengthened late in the week, while sterling and the euro remained higher overall; the rupee fell sharply |
Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, March 2026.
All five events connect back to the Iran conflict and its consequences for energy markets, inflation and investor sentiment.
1. Iran and Energy: Why This Shock Looked Different
Amid all of this, Nvidia told investors that the revenue opportunity for its Blackwell and Rubin AI chips could exceed $1 trillion by 2027.
In most weeks, that would have dominated market attention. This week, it did not.
These developments are not isolated—they form part of a broader, interconnected narrative, with Iran at the centre. Understanding how they link together provides a clearer perspective on current market conditions and what they may mean for your portfolio.
2. The Fed and the BoE: The Missing Lifeline
In previous market crises, central banks often moved quickly to support growth through rate cuts. This time, that response is more constrained. Higher energy prices are feeding into headline inflation, limiting how quickly policymakers can ease.
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5% to 3.75% on 18 March. Chair Jerome Powell indicated that median projections place PCE inflation at 2.7% this year and 2.2% next year, with the federal funds rate expected to reach 3.4% by year-end.
In practical terms, one rate cut remains in the Fed’s central projection for 2026, but only if inflation continues to move in the right direction. Powell also noted that while higher energy prices will lift inflation in the near term, the broader trend extends beyond oil alone.
The Bank of England struck a more hawkish tone. It held Bank Rate at 3.75% in a unanimous decision on 19 March, while signalling a readiness to act if needed. Meeting minutes highlighted sustained disruption to oil and gas supply as an upside risk to inflation, and market expectations have shifted from anticipating cuts to considering the possibility of further tightening.
This has implications beyond interest rates. When central banks are less able to respond quickly, market recoveries can still occur, but they tend to be slower and less policy-driven. For investors, this affects sentiment and timing more than the underlying rationale for remaining invested.
3. Exchange Rates: What It Means If You Send Money Home
This part of the story is practical, not theoretical. Exchange rates moved, but not all in the same direction. Reuters reported that the dollar rose on Friday as oil stayed high, yet sterling and the euro were still higher over the week after hawkish signals from the BoE and other central banks. By contrast, the Indian rupee fell to a record low against the dollar as higher oil prices intensified pressure on an economy that imports most of its crude.
That means the old blanket line that “the dollar is stronger against everything” is too crude for this moment. The cleaner point is that the current environment has favoured the dollar against more energy-sensitive and import-exposed currencies, while the path against sterling and the euro has been more mixed because rate expectations in Europe and the UK have also shifted.
If you have regular overseas transfers, this is a reminder that geopolitics can change the economics of remittances very quickly. It is worth looking at the currencies that matter to you rather than assuming they are all moving the same way.
| If You Send Money To… | Current Direction | Practical Impact |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom (GBP) | USD/AED stronger vs GBP | You receive more pounds than earlier this year |
| India (INR) | USD/AED stronger vs INR | You receive more rupees than earlier this year |
| Europe (EUR) | USD/AED stronger vs EUR | You receive more euros than earlier this year |
| Philippines (PHP) | USD/AED stronger vs PHP | You receive more pesos than earlier this year |
| Pakistan (PKR) | USD/AED stronger vs PKR | You receive more rupees than earlier this year |
| Receiving income from UK (GBP → AED) | GBP weaker vs USD/AED | You receive fewer dirhams when converting from GBP |
4. Nvidia: A Huge AI Story That Markets Treated Cautiously
At its GTC conference in San Jose, Nvidia indicated that the revenue opportunity for its Blackwell and Rubin chip families could exceed $1 trillion through 2027. This should be understood as a measure of potential market opportunity, rather than confirmed orders. Separate reporting has also pointed to a large-scale supply agreement with Amazon Web Services, helping to explain management’s confidence in demand.
The underlying fundamentals remain strong. Nvidia’s most recent results showed quarterly revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73% year-on-year, with data centre revenue reaching a record $62.3 billion. These are reported figures. Previously cited higher numbers reflected forward-looking expectations in market commentary, rather than actual reported revenue.
The key takeaway this week was the contrast. Nvidia delivered a significant growth narrative, yet the broader market response remained muted as investor attention focused on energy prices, interest rates, and geopolitical developments. This does not undermine the long-term AI theme, but highlights how short-term macro factors can overshadow even very strong company-specific developments.
5. The Bottom Line: One Story, One Source, A More Complicated Recovery Path
All of the unusual developments in markets this week can be traced back to a single source: the Iran conflict and its implications for global energy supply. Strikes on energy infrastructure pushed prices higher, which in turn fed inflation concerns. Higher inflation has made central banks more cautious, and that caution has helped to suppress the market’s response even to strong corporate news such as Nvidia’s.
It is important, however, to avoid false certainty. It would be too simplistic to say that energy prices alone drove every market move, or that any recovery will follow a fixed sequence. A more balanced view is that this conflict has become the dominant driver of market sentiment for now, particularly through the energy channel. If tensions ease, that pressure may also begin to ease, but the timing and shape of any recovery will still depend on inflation, policy decisions, and investor confidence.
This is the key message for investors. The events of this week are connected, but they are not straightforward. It is worth resisting explanations that are neater than the underlying reality.
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