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New All-Time Highs: The Market Has Already Moved On. Have You?
Hoxton Blog • New All-Time Highs: The Market Has Already Moved On. Have You?
Six weeks ago, the world watched as US and Israeli forces struck Iran, the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed, oil surged toward $120 per barrel, and stock markets fell sharply. It felt, for many investors, like a moment to act — to step aside, wait for clarity, and reinvest when things felt safer.
On Wednesday, April 15, the S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 7,022.95, surpassing the previous record set on January 28. The Nasdaq completed its 11th consecutive positive session, its longest winning streak since 2009. Investors who stayed the course through the turbulence are not just back to where they were; they are ahead. Investors who exited are still working out how and when to get back in, watching the market climb without them.
This week’s note is about that gap. About what the new all-time high means, where the Iran situation stands, and why the data consistently shows that patience - not timing - is what builds lasting wealth.
1. Where We Are: The Recovery in Numbers
Since 1990, the 25 best and 25 worst single days in the oil market have not been random. They cluster together, appearing in tight groups during periods of maximum uncertainty, including the Gulf War in 1990, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2014 to 2016 oil price collapse, the 2020 pandemic, and now 2026.
What this cluster pattern means in practice is simple. The biggest up days and the biggest down days in oil tend to come in close succession. We saw that again this week, with a multi-percent fall on ceasefire hopes followed within 24 hours by a sharp surge on escalation news.
If you sold oil exposure on Tuesday, you likely gave back those gains on Wednesday. If you bought on Wednesday’s surge, you likely paid close to the peak. Volatility during a geopolitical event is not a series of clear signals. It is noise, and trying to trade that noise is expensive.
It also tells us something more reassuring. This level of volatility is not unprecedented, and it does not last forever. In every prior period, 1990, 2008, and 2020, extreme daily moves eventually subsided as the underlying situation became clearer. The same is likely to happen here. The question is whether you are invested when it does.
Brent crude is trading at approximately $103.97 per barrel on Thursday, up around 50% since the conflict began on February 28. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply normally transits, remains largely closed to commercial shipping. Iran has attacked multiple vessels, and insurers are refusing to cover transit.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq have been rerouting exports through alternative channels, but at higher cost and lower volume. The result is a global energy supply squeeze that is feeding directly into inflation, suppressing consumer spending, and complicating the response of central banks worldwide.
But the chart below tells the more important story for investors.
The sequence of events this week was almost a textbook demonstration of why geopolitical headline trading destroys value. Here is what happened, and what each headline did to markets in real time:
| When | The Headline | Market Reaction |
|---|---|---|
| Monday to Tuesday | Trump paused strikes on Iranian energy plants for 10 days; “talks are ongoing and going very well.” | S&P 500 rallied ~2% over two days; oil fell; dollar softened |
| Tuesday | Iran’s foreign minister: “No negotiations are taking place with Washington.” | Gains pared; oil recovered ground |
| Wednesday evening | Trump national address: “We will hit Iran extremely hard over the next two to three weeks”; no push to reopen Hormuz | Oil surged 5%+ to above $105/bbl; S&P 500 futures slid overnight |
| Thursday | Iran rejected US 15-point ceasefire plan as “maximalist and unreasonable.” | Markets fell; Hormuz disruption fears reasserted |
Anyone who traded each of those moments paid transaction costs, got the direction wrong at least twice, and finished the week in the same place as someone who did nothing, except with less money and more stress.
This is the reality of headline trading in a geopolitical conflict. The information is incomplete, the signals are contradictory, and the market has already moved before most investors can react.
On Tuesday, markets surged on reports that Iran had requested a ceasefire and that talks were making progress.
By Wednesday evening, President Trump addressed the nation and declared that the US would hit Iran “extremely hard over the next two to three weeks.” Oil spiked above $105 per barrel, and stock futures gave back their gains overnight.
If you tried to act on either of those headlines, you likely lost twice. If you sat still, you are in exactly the same position as the week before, fully invested, with your long-term plan intact and positioned for the recovery when it comes.
That is the message this week. Not that the situation is not serious, it is. Not that markets will not be volatile, they will be.
But the single most expensive thing an investor can do right now is to keep reacting to each new headline as though it changes the fundamental story. It does not. And the cost of doing so compounds.
The speed and scale of the recovery have been remarkable. After falling nearly 10% from its January record during the height of the conflict, the S&P 500 has gained more than 11% from its war-period lows in just ten trading sessions — its fastest 10-session rally since the early pandemic rebound in 2020, according to Deutsche Bank. It has not merely recovered lost ground. It has broken through to new territory.
| Milestone | Level / Move | Date |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 pre-war all-time high | 7,002.28 | January 28, 2026 |
| S&P 500 at peak pessimism (war low) | ~6,321 (approx. -9.8%) | Late March 2026 |
| S&P 500 fully recovers war losses | Back above 7,002 | Monday April 13, 2026 |
| S&P 500 new all-time high close | 7,022.95 | Wednesday April 15, 2026 |
| S&P 500 second new ATH close | 7,041.28 | Thursday April 16, 2026 |
| S&P 500 year-to-date return | +2.2% (above pre-war levels) | As of April 16, 2026 |
| Nasdaq: consecutive positive sessions | 12 days — longest streak since 2009 | As of April 16, 2026 |
| Nasdaq year-to-date return | +3%+, also at record | As of April 16, 2026 |
To put this in context: an investor who held their position through the entire conflict — through the initial shock, the Hormuz closure, the $117 oil, the ceasefire whipsaw, and the diplomatic uncertainty — is now sitting on a portfolio that is worth more than it was before the war started. The crisis came, the crisis passed, and the market moved on. It always does.
2. Geopolitics Always Feels Different. The Data Says Otherwise.
When a geopolitical crisis unfolds in real time, it always feels unique. The stakes feel higher, the uncertainty feels greater, the case for caution feels more compelling than ever before. This is not a weakness. It is a natural human response to uncertainty. But it is also, consistently, the wrong instinct when it comes to investment decisions.
The chart below shows the S&P 500’s one-year forward return after every major geopolitical event since the Korean War. The average one-year return across all these events is 14.2%. From the Cuban Missile Crisis to 9/11 to COVID-19, markets that fell in the immediate aftermath of a shock consistently recovered and went higher within twelve months. The one exception, the Ukraine invasion, coincided with an aggressive rate-hiking cycle, not with the geopolitical event itself.
Source: Hoxton Wealth / FactSet Research Systems Inc., Standard & Poor’s. Latest: April 16, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The current Iran conflict is now being added to this list. The S&P 500 fell sharply in the immediate aftermath of the February 28 strikes. It has since recovered fully and hit new records. The pattern has repeated once again, and with a speed that surprised even optimistic analysts.
The lesson is not that geopolitical events don’t matter. They do, in the short term. The lesson is that they have never, across 70 years of data, permanently derailed the long-term direction of a diversified equity portfolio. The businesses that make up the S&P 500 have adapted to wars, recessions, pandemics, and political upheavals for three quarters of a century. There is no reason to believe this conflict is different.
3. Where the Iran Situation Stands
The two-week ceasefire announced on April 8 has broadly held. US and Iranian officials are reportedly in indirect talks to extend the arrangement, with both sides said to be ‘in principle’ in favour of an extension. The S&P 500’s new record on April 15 came on the same day that President Trump indicated negotiations for lasting peace could resume by the end of the week. A fresh Israel–Lebanon ten-day ceasefire was also announced, further reducing the regional temperature.
Oil remains elevated at around $94–96 per barrel — well below the $117–119 peak during the height of the conflict, but still above the pre-war level of around $70. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is slowly resuming. Iran has indicated that safe passage is available via coordination with its armed forces. Maritime insurers, while cautious, are beginning to reassess coverage terms. The backlog of 187 tankers stranded in the Gulf at the height of the crisis is gradually clearing.
This is not a resolution. The ceasefire is fragile, trust between Washington and Tehran remains thin, and the underlying issues — Iran’s nuclear programme, US security interests, and the role of regional proxies — have not been resolved. But the direction has changed materially, and markets are pricing in the probability that a more durable arrangement follows. As prediction markets now put the probability of a full ceasefire by the end of June at over 65%, investors are beginning to look through the remaining uncertainty toward what comes next.
4. The Cost of Exiting: A £500,000 Example
Let us make the cost of sitting on the sidelines concrete. Consider two investors, both holding £500,000 in a portfolio tracking the S&P 500 at the January 28 all-time high of 7,002.28.
| Investor A: Stayed Invested | Investor B: Exited at the Low | |
|---|---|---|
| Value at Jan 28 pre-war high (7,002) | £500,000 | £500,000 |
| Value at war low (~9.8% fall to 6,321) | £451,000 on paper — did not sell | £451,000 — sold here, loss locked in |
| Ceasefire rally (Apr 8, +2.51%) | £462,344 | £451,000 cash — missed the move |
| S&P 500 fully recovers (Apr 13) | £500,000+ — back to breakeven | £451,000 cash — still sitting out |
| New all-time high (Apr 15, 7,022.95) | £501,565 — above pre-war value | £451,000 cash — £50,565 behind |
| New all-time high (Apr 16, 7,041.28) | £502,876 — ahead of where they started | £451,000 cash — £51,876 behind |
Illustrative example. Values calculated using actual S&P 500 index levels. £ used for illustration; applies equally to USD or AED portfolios. Does not include transaction costs or tax, which would widen the gap further. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Investor B did not just miss the ceasefire day rally. They missed the entire recovery. They watched the S&P climb from 6,321 back through 7,000 and to a new record, a move of more than 11%, sitting in cash. They are now £51,876 behind an investor who simply did nothing. And they still face the harder question: at what level do they get back in? Every day the market moves higher without them, the re-entry feels more uncomfortable, and the temptation to ‘wait for a dip’ grows stronger. This is exactly how investors who sell in a crisis end up missing the full recovery.
5. All-Time Highs Are Normal — Not a Warning Sign
When the S&P 500 hits a new all-time high, many investors feel an instinct to pause. If the market is at its highest ever point, surely a correction is overdue? Surely this is a time to take profits and wait for a better entry?
The data says otherwise. The chart below shows the number of new all-time highs in the S&P 500 each year since 1990. In years like 1995, 2021, and 2024, the market set 62, 70, and 57 new all-time highs respectively. The average since 1990 is around 21 new records per year. New all-time highs are not a warning that the market is about to fall. They are a normal, recurring feature of a market that, over time, trends upward.
In 2026, the S&P 500 has now hit five all-time highs, despite a full-scale Middle East conflict, a 10% correction, an oil crisis, and two central banks that could not cut rates. Five new records in a year that had every reason not to produce any. The market’s ability to look through short-term disruption and price in long-term value is not a theory. It is what the data shows, year after year.
Investors who sell at a new all-time high and wait for a correction frequently find themselves waiting while the market sets 10, 20, or 30 more records before any meaningful pullback materialises. The opportunity cost is real, compounding, and often invisible until you compare where you could have been.
6. Why Trading Headlines Has Never Worked
The past six weeks offered a masterclass in why reacting to news is such a destructive investment strategy. Consider the sequence: the war began, markets fell, Iran rejected ceasefire proposals, markets fell further, Trump threatened escalation, oil hit $117, and markets hit their lows. Then, a ceasefire was announced at 10 pm, and markets surged the next day. Talks extended, markets continued to climb. New all-time high. In six weeks, the narrative went from ‘worst geopolitical crisis since 9/11’ to ‘record stock market’.
Anyone who traded each of those headlines, selling on escalation, buying on ceasefire, selling on Iranian denials, buying on Trump’s peace signals, paid transaction costs on each trade, got the direction wrong at least some of the time, and ended up in a worse position than someone who simply did nothing. The chart below illustrates exactly why this happens.
The 25 best days and 25 worst days in the S&P 500 since 1990 cluster together in tight groups during the same periods of maximum fear and volatility. The ceasefire rally of April 8, one of the best days of the year, came the day after some of the most fearful headlines of the conflict. This is the consistent pattern across every market crisis. The best days do not come during calm markets. They come when fear is at its peak, when every instinct is telling investors to stay in cash, when the headlines are at their most alarming. The only way to capture them is to be invested through the periods when that feels hardest.
7. Volatility Is the Price of Admission
One of the most powerful reframes for investors navigating a period like the past six weeks is this: volatility is not a malfunction of markets. It is a feature. It is the mechanism by which markets reprice uncertainty, and it is the reason why long-term investors are rewarded for staying the course.
Source: Hoxton Wealth / FactSet Research Systems Inc., Standard & Poor’s. Latest: April 15, 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has experienced 73 separate drawdowns of 5% or more. Twenty-six drawdowns of 10% or more. Eleven of 20% or more. Three of 40% or more. The current war-related drawdown of approximately 10% was number 26 on that list. Every single one of those 73 previous drawdowns ended with the market recovering and going on to new highs. Not most of them. All of them. The current episode is not different in kind from any that came before, only in the news cycle surrounding it.
Investors who exited during any of those 73 previous episodes faced the same challenge Investor B now faces: having to decide when to get back in, at a higher price, while managing the emotional weight of having been wrong. The investors who simply held through the volatility did not need to make that decision. They stayed on the road and let the destination come to them.
8. The Businesses Are Still Winning
Behind every index record is a collection of businesses that have not just survived the past six weeks — they have demonstrated their resilience. Q1 2026 earnings season is underway, and the results are telling. Taiwan Semiconductor beat expectations on both earnings and revenue, driven by AI-related demand that did not slow for a single week during the conflict. PepsiCo beat analyst expectations. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs all reported. ASML posted strong quarterly earnings on intense AI-related demand.
These are not companies that needed the war to end to perform. They adapted. They served their customers. They kept investing in their futures. The energy headwind affected some sectors more than others; airlines, logistics, and consumer staples all felt margin pressure. But those same sectors, Delta up 12% on ceasefire day, Royal Caribbean up 8%, have demonstrated their ability to recover the moment conditions improve.
The companies in a high-quality, diversified portfolio share this characteristic. They are not dependent on any single geopolitical outcome. They operate across multiple geographies, serve multiple customer segments, and have management teams that have navigated complex environments before. Regulations change, trade routes shift, energy prices rise and fall, and quality businesses adapt to all of it. The Iran conflict has been the latest proof of that. It will not be the last test these businesses face. But based on the track record, we have every confidence they will pass the next one too.
9. Our Message to You
The S&P 500 is at an all-time high. The Nasdaq is at an all-time high. If you were invested through the past six weeks, you are not just recovered, you are ahead. If you exited, the market has moved on without you, and the gap is now real and measurable.
We are not telling you the situation is without risk. The ceasefire is two weeks old and fragile. Oil is still elevated. The Fed has not yet cut rates. There will be more volatility. There always is. The drawdown chart above shows 73 episodes since 1950, and there will be a 74th, a 75th, and beyond. That is simply the nature of investing in equities.
What the data shows, consistently and without exception, is that the right response to every one of those 73 previous episodes was to stay invested. To let the volatility pass. To resist the instinct to trade the headlines. To trust that the businesses behind the portfolio are more resilient than any single crisis. And to be in a position when the market, as it has done repeatedly, sets new all-time highs on the other side.
That day came this week. It came faster than most expected. And it rewarded exactly the investors who deserved it most: the ones who stayed.
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” — Warren Buffett
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