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SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs: Why Investors Should Look Beyond the Hype
Hoxton Blog • SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs: Why Investors Should Look Beyond the Hype
Few investment stories have captured public attention quite like the anticipated public listings of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic.
These companies sit at the centre of some of the most transformative technologies of our generation.
SpaceX has reshaped the economics of space travel. OpenAI helped bring artificial intelligence into the mainstream. Anthropic has rapidly emerged as one of the leading competitors in the AI race.
As speculation grows around potential IPOs, many investors are asking the same question: should I invest as soon as these companies become available to the public?
The answer is more nuanced than many headlines suggest.
Great Companies and Great Investments Are Not Always the Same Thing
It is easy to see why investors are excited.
Historically, some of the most successful investments have come from backing innovative businesses before they reached their full potential.
Stories such as Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft have created the impression that identifying the next transformative company is the key to building wealth.
The challenge is that public investors are rarely getting access at the beginning of the story.
Many of today's technology giants went public when they were still relatively small businesses with uncertain futures. Investors who took on that uncertainty were rewarded if the company succeeded.
The situation facing investors today is very different.
By the time companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic reach public markets, much of their growth story is already widely understood.
Their brands are globally recognised, institutional investors have spent years analysing their prospects, and valuations often reflect extremely optimistic expectations.
That does not mean these businesses cannot continue to grow.
It simply means that future returns depend not only on the quality of the company but also on the price investors pay to own it.
The IPO Performance Gap
One of the biggest misconceptions surrounding IPOs is that buying on day one automatically leads to superior returns.
The historical evidence tells a different story.
The Biggest IPOs Have Often Disappointed Early Investors
Top 10 U.S. Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) by size with 1 Year Forward Return from IPO Date (%)
The challenge is not limited to smaller or speculative listings. In fact, some of the largest IPOs in U.S. history have produced disappointing returns during their first year as public companies.
Looking at the 10 largest U.S. IPOs since 1999, every single one delivered a negative return in the 12 months following its market debut. The average decline was approximately 28%.
Companies including Alibaba, Meta, Uber, and General Motors all traded below their IPO prices one year after listing, despite many going on to become significant businesses in their own right.
This highlights an important distinction that investors often overlook. A company can be innovative, profitable, and strategically important, while still proving to be a poor investment at a particular valuation.
The issue is not always the quality of the business. More often, it is the price investors are willing to pay when enthusiasm is at its highest.
For investors considering future listings such as SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic, history offers a useful reminder: market excitement does not guarantee strong investment returns, particularly when expectations are already reflected in the share price.
Why does this happen?
In many cases, IPOs attract intense media coverage and investor enthusiasm. Demand is high, expectations are elevated, and valuations can become stretched. When reality eventually catches up with expectations, share prices may experience significant volatility.
Even successful businesses are not immune.
A company can continue growing, increasing revenues, and expanding its market share while still delivering disappointing investment returns if investors initially paid too much for the shares.
This distinction between business success and investment success is often overlooked.
The Cost of FOMO
One of the strongest emotional forces in investing is the fear of missing out.
When investors see headlines about breakthrough technologies, billion-dollar valuations, and rapidly growing companies, it is natural to worry about being left behind.
The problem is that FOMO rarely leads to disciplined decision-making.
Instead of asking whether an investment fits within a broader financial plan, investors can become focused on a single outcome: getting exposure before it is "too late".
History provides countless examples of this behaviour.
Every market cycle has its dominant narrative. Sometimes it is internet companies. Sometimes it is property. Sometimes it is cryptocurrencies or artificial intelligence.
The underlying technology or innovation may be real and valuable. However, investor enthusiasm often pushes expectations beyond what is reasonable.
As a result, many investors end up buying at moments when optimism is already fully reflected in prices.
You May Already Have Exposure
Another important point often missed in discussions about high-profile IPOs is that many investors already have indirect exposure to these themes.
Large technology companies have invested heavily in artificial intelligence. Major semiconductor businesses have benefited from the rapid growth of AI infrastructure. Many diversified portfolios already contain companies that participate in or support these trends.
In addition, if newly listed companies eventually enter major stock market indices, investors holding broad index funds may gain exposure automatically.
This highlights an important principle of long-term investing.
You do not necessarily need to make concentrated bets on individual companies to benefit from major technological shifts.
In many cases, broad diversification allows investors to participate in long-term growth while reducing the risks associated with relying on a single business or sector.
Concentration Increases Risk
When investors become excited about a particular opportunity, there is often a temptation to allocate a significant portion of their portfolio to that investment.
This approach can create substantial risks.
No matter how promising a company appears, unexpected challenges can emerge. Competition can increase. Regulation can change. Growth can slow. Market sentiment can shift.
Concentrated positions may generate spectacular returns when everything goes right, but they can also cause significant damage when expectations are not met.
Diversification remains one of the most effective ways to manage uncertainty.
Rather than trying to predict a single winner, diversified investors position themselves to benefit from a wide range of outcomes while reducing the impact of any one disappointment.
The Bigger Picture
The excitement surrounding SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic is understandable. These are remarkable businesses operating at the forefront of innovation.
They may go on to become some of the most influential companies of the next decade.
However, successful investing has never been solely about identifying great companies.
It is about understanding valuation, managing risk, and maintaining realistic expectations.
Most long-term wealth is not built through a series of perfectly timed investment decisions. It is built through consistency, patience, and a disciplined approach that remains focused on long-term objectives rather than short-term headlines.
As these anticipated IPOs move closer, investors would do well to remember a simple principle: the quality of a company matters, but the price you pay matters too.
The most successful investors are often not the ones chasing every opportunity. They are the ones who stay focused on their plan, remain diversified, and allow time to do the heavy lifting.
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